Mixing the Revs and math

The York Revolution are awaiting the completion of three player contracts within the next 48 hours, meaning we’ll soon have some actual news to discuss here.

But in the meantime, I’ve dug up an interesting math equation to examine the productivity of last year’s Revolution team. It’s call the Pythagorean expectation formula, which was developed by the legendary Bill James. Here’s the equation below:

brief-formula.png

Basically, this formula tells us how many games the Revs should have won last year. According to James, comparing a team’s actual winning percentage and the Pythagorean percentage will tell us how lucky York was last season. So here we go.

The Pythagorean equation gives us an expected .448 winning percentage. That number can be multiplied by the total number of games York played last season (126) to come up with the number of games York should have won last year — 56.426 in this instance. So we can gather from this formula that the Revolution were a tad lucky last year because the club actually finished 58-68. (The team’s actual winning percentage was .460)

revs_cap_logo.pngSo what does this mean? Basically, the Revs lost as often as their run production would indicate last year. All the road games, the incomplete clubhouse, the trailers, the rookie manager — it all meant pretty much nothing in the standings. When you give up more runs than you score, you’ll have a hard time winning in any league — let alone the Atlantic League.

Of course, using this equation during a season is usually more useful. You can predict how many games a team will win that way. But it’s interesting to see that the Revs really weren’t as unfortunate as some might have thought in ’07. Instead, you could call the inaugural Revolution team lucky. Who would’ve guessed that?

As for an analysis on the current Revolution lineup, I’ll leave that for Wednesday when the team will hopefully unveil its latest round of signings. Two pitchers and another position player will be included in the group.

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3 Responses

  1. I’m intrigued by the forthcoming signings…the timing suggests that these might be guys released from organizations.

  2. I like the optimism. And I’ll say this: you’re partially correct.

    Saying anything else might be construed as tampering (Ha!). But all kidding aside, I’ll still respect the team’s wishes and we’ll just have to wait to see when they announce the signings.

  3. Sweet. Love Pythag Win %. Keep us posted on how the teams do this year, I was running a spreadsheet for 2007 but can’t find it anymore.

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